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What to know about the latest potential storm brewing in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance, and meteorologists say it has a 50 percent chance of eventually being named Nadine.

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The National Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean — the swirl of clouds left of and just up from the center of this satellite image captured Monday. (CIRA/NOAA)
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This busy hurricane season just won’t quit. Another potential system may be brewing in the central Atlantic Ocean, and meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center, who are monitoring the disturbance, say it has a 50 percent chance of eventually being named Nadine.

While there’s a lot of uncertainty and even anxiety about the disturbance, it’s important to remember it isn’t a storm yet and may never become one. Even if it does, it may be unlikely to hit the mainland United States, which was recently clobbered by back-to-back storms.

Nevertheless, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the southeast Bahamas should remain on guard late this week into the weekend.

We won’t realistically know until Wednesday or Thursday whether the system has the potential to enter the Caribbean Sea or approach the southeastern United States.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been a busy one to date. The United States has been struck by five hurricanes — Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton — and two came ashore at major (Category 3 or greater) strength.

Experts initially called for a “hyperactive” season, and there are signs that things won’t slow down markedly for another three or four weeks. The season has already churned out 34 percent more ACE, or Accumulated Cyclone Energy, than average for this time of year. ACE is a metric that gauges how much energy storms expend on producing strong winds.

There are signs a renewed flurry of activity may come in late October or early November. (Hurricane season officially runs through until Nov. 30.)

What to know about the latest system

The National Hurricane Center has designated this system as “Invest 94L,” and it’s currently about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The term “invest” simply means the Hurricane Center is keeping tabs on it.

As of Monday afternoon, it was several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It was embedded in a dry environment, though, and wasn’t doing much.

After spending much of the past 24 hours as a simple swirl evident on satellite imagery, the disturbance sprouted one or two lone, fleeting thunderstorms. Those didn’t do much, and subsequently weakened.

It won’t be until midweek that the system makes it farther west into an environment that could further fuel it.

Will we get another named storm? And when?

Weather models indicate there’s a window of opportunity perhaps Wednesday or Thursday when the system may develop further. There will be more moisture to work with, and the system will be passing over warmer waters. That could allow a tropical depression or tropical storm to form, and receive a name, by Thursday.

The system will still be working against shear, or disruptive winds that change with height, which will prevent it from organizing too quickly. Only gradual strengthening is likely as it heads west, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico by Friday.

Will the system become a hurricane?

From there, some weather models do indicate some strengthening into the weekend as the system treks west toward Hispaniola. A hurricane can’t be ruled out.

But a crashing cold front looks to sag southeast, and may weaken the system on Sunday as dry air and disruptive upper-level winds invade. There is a low chance it enters the Gulf of Mexico or northern Caribbean.

Haiti, the Dominican Republic and the southeast Bahamas should keep an eye on the storm system.

As of now, it does not appear to be a threat to the mainland United States.

Are there any other systems to watch?

Yes.

There is a separate area of spin that is not included in National Hurricane Center outlooks, but some weather models indicate it could tighten by late week in the western Caribbean.

It would then drift west into Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala or Belize, perhaps as a named storm. Heavy rains and mudslides would be likely, and strong to damaging winds depending on the storm’s strength.