Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now?

What’s changed: We’ve removed the last effects of polls that included President Joe Biden (which we had included to stabilize our model). This change, along with the most recent polling released over the last two days, shows some tightening of the race. This is especially visible in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, though Vice President Kamala Harris continues to lead in all three states, as well as nationally. Donald Trump continues to lead in Georgia and Arizona. North Carolina and Nevada are very close.

The Washington Post is gathering the best available national and state-level polling data and factoring how citizens in each state voted in the last two presidential elections to calculate which candidate voters currently favor in the presidential race.

We’ll update our polling averages at least once per day. Remember, this isn’t a presidential forecast, but instead a snapshot of the state of public opinion.

Want to know more about how our polling averages work? Read our methodology, or learn about what sets our model apart.

How the national polls have changed since January

The presidential election isn’t decided by the national popular vote, which is why we rely heavily on state polls in our polling averages. However, national polls are still useful for understanding the overall state of the race. They tend to pick up changes in the overall environment quicker than state-level polls, and our polling averages do draw on national polls, especially in states where we don’t have a lot of high-quality polls. Here’s how the presidential race has changed in national polls since January.

The state polls driving our averages

All polls vary. Polling averages help us incorporate polls that point in different directions and let us easily compare trends. Here is a look at the results of all of the polls since Harris entered the race that we’ve included in our averages.

The polls could underestimate Harris’s or Trump’s support

A polling average is the best way to understand the state of play in a presidential race, but as we know from previous presidential cycles, the polls aren’t always right. Take a look at how polling errors in the past three presidential elections would affect our current 2024 polling averages.

Explore our polling averages in each battleground state