Analysis

JD Vance goes all in on the justified lie

Trump’s running mate keeps offering remarkable defenses of the GOP ticket’s false immigration claims.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 14, 2024
Analysis

How reported threats in N.C. trace to Trump-fueled misinformation

Americans are experiencing the real-world consequences of throwing conspiracy theories into a tense situation — again.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 14, 2024
Analysis

Things are looking up for JD Vance

Post-debate polls suggest he’s no longer such a weight around Donald Trump’s ankles.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 11, 2024
Analysis

Vance’s ‘diplomacy’ quote points to problem with any Trump-Putin calls

Trump himself has long criticized shadow diplomacy with hostile foreign countries as wrong and even illegal.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 9, 2024
Analysis

The hurricane X-factor in the 2024 election

Previous hurricanes have reduced voter turnout in hard-hit areas and both helped and hurt incumbents. This fall’s storms affect particularly crucial electoral regions.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 8, 2024
Analysis

Local Republicans decry hurricane falsehoods — as Trump spreads them

As with Springfield, Ohio, Republicans are pressing (often gently) for their side to cut it out. And as with Springfield, their pleas are going unheard.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 7, 2024
Analysis

Why is Melania Trump coming out for abortion rights?

The left sees political strategy in the former first lady’s sudden, unequivocal statements backing abortion rights. But there are simpler explanations.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 3, 2024
Analysis

5 takeaways from the big new filing on Trump’s 2020 election plot

“So what,” “Make them riot,” “It doesn’t matter if you won or lost the election,” and what it all means legally and politically.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 2, 2024
Analysis

Trump’s continued callousness toward injured soldiers

Trump calls the injuries to American soldiers caused by a 2020 Iranian missile strike “headaches.” They were much more than that. And the former president can’t stop saying and doing things like this.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 2, 2024
Analysis

Vance probably ‘won’ the debate. But Walz might have gained more.

A dive into the nuanced instant post-debate polling.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 2, 2024
Analysis

How voters view Vance and Walz, in detail

Tim Walz is a lot more popular than JD Vance and holds several key advantages. Republicans are clearly less enamored of their nominee’s running mate.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 1, 2024
Analysis

24 hours of MAGA misinformation

A small sampling of the inundation of false and dubious claims flowing from Donald Trump and his allies.

By Aaron BlakeOctober 1, 2024
Analysis

Union members could be big for Trump. He keeps complicating that.

Trump’s new comments about avoiding overtime pay for workers are just his latest to attack core labor issues.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 30, 2024
Analysis

Polls show big increase in Republicans planning to vote for abortion rights

In some states, that GOP number could even approach a majority.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 30, 2024
Analysis

What JD Vance’s private Trump comments tell us

It looks like Vance’s politically expedient Trump conversion happened significantly later than we previously knew. But that’s not the only point.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 27, 2024
Analysis

Eric Adams and Trump say Adams was targeted. Key details undercut that.

Right-wing influencers and the former president suggest the New York mayor was singled out for not toeing Democrats’ line. But the indictment describes brazen behavior.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 26, 2024
Analysis

Troubling signs for the GOP on mail voting

Republican leaders have pushed for their party to embrace early and mail voting, despite Trump’s attacks on it. Voters appear to be taking their cues from him.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 25, 2024
Analysis

The nativists have taken over the GOP

Just five years ago, 21 percent of Republicans in a CNN poll said increasing racial and ethnic diversity threatened American culture. Today, 55 percent say that.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 25, 2024
Analysis

Trump keeps talking about criminalizing dissent

Four times in recent weeks, the former president said it is or should be illegal to criticize judges, despite his long history of doing just that.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 24, 2024
Analysis

Kamala Harris’s what-can-you-do-for-me problem

A new poll gets at a significant disconnect in the 2024 race. Voters like Harris and even her policies, but they see themselves better off under Trump.

By Aaron BlakeSeptember 23, 2024